The Russian invasion of Ukraine

Over the past few years, the conflict in Ukraine has highlighted a critical weakness in Russian foreign policy: its inability to intervene in a timely and effective manner in the region. This weakness has enabled the Government of Azerbaijan to continue attacking Armenia with impunity, as Russia has failed to take decisive action to protect its ally.

The Ukrainian conflict began in 2014 when the Government of Ukraine declared their intention to move closer to the European Union and away from Russian influence. In response, Russia annexed Crimea and fomented a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine. In response to Ukraine’s action, the US and EU imposed economic sanctions on Russia.

As a result, Russia has been unable to intervene effectively in the conflict in Ukraine and has been unable to protect its ally Armenia from continued aggression from Azerbaijan effectively. In April 2016, Azerbaijan launched a large offensive against Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which resulted in hundreds of casualties on both sides.

Russia has repeatedly called for both sides to come to the negotiating table but has failed to intervene to prevent further violence effectively. This has led to a perception of Russian weakness in the region and has emboldened Azerbaijan to continue its campaign against Armenia.