Thinking in Bets
Annie Duke is a World Series of Poker bracelet winner, the 2004 Tournament of Champions champion, and the only female winner of the NBC National Poker Heads Up Championship. As a professional speaker and decision strategist, she combines her poker knowledge with her PhD study in cognitive psychology at UPenn. She is the founder of How I Decide, a non-profit that develops courses and resources to help underserved middle school students improve their decision-making and critical thinking skills.
With 26 seconds remaining and behind by four at the Patriots' one-yard line in Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll went for a pass instead of a handoff to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks were defeated. It was dubbed "the dumbest play in history" by critics. Was the call truly that bad? Or did Carroll execute a terrific move that was thwarted by poor luck?
Even the finest option does not always result in the best outcome. There is always an element of chance that you cannot control, as well as information that is hidden from view. So, the secret to long-term success (and avoiding death by anxiety) is to think in terms of bets: "How certain am I? What are the various outcomes that could occur? Which decision has the best chance of success? Did I fall into the unlucky 10% on a method that succeeds 90% of the time? Is my success due to dumb luck rather than wise decision-making?"
In Thinking in Bets, Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker winner turned business consultant, uses examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to teach readers how to embrace uncertainty and make smarter decisions. In a world that emphasizes and even promotes the appearance of certainty, most people find it difficult to express "I'm not sure." Professional poker players, on the other hand, are aware that good judgments do not always result in good outcomes, and bad ones do not always result in terrible outcomes.
You'll be less subject to reactionary emotions, knee-jerk biases, and detrimental patterns in your decision making if you alter your thinking from a desire for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't. In the long term, you'll grow more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful.
Author: Annie Duke
Link to buy: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Bets-Making-Smarter-Decisions/dp/0735216355/
Ratings: 4.4 out of 5 stars (from 2351 reviews)
Best Sellers Rank: #18,600 in Books
#50 in Strategic Business Planning
#58 in Systems & Planning
#89 in Medical Cognitive Psychology
